东京爱情故事

一 |     The energy issue appeared to be the real reason behind Biden's visit to the Saudi kingdom, which he promised to turn into a "pariah state" on the campaign trail in 2019-2020. Since the beginning of 2021, prices for oil have soared more than two-fold in the US, prompting the Biden administration to seek ways to convince the Saudis and their OPEC allies to step up crude production in order to bring energy costs down.,"The oil policy in Saudi Arabia pretty much is set," said Dr. Ahmed Al Ibrahim, a Riyadh-based political analyst. "They are monitoring the market and they are floating the market with supply chains consistently with the demand. They cannot overdo that because it does not help the market and the OPEC+ members. And also Saudi Arabia is burdened by contracts where they cannot really actually go by themselves and take the decision. They are part of an OPEC+ and these countries, they said they are very efficient and the energy prices are very good.",The political scientist highlighted that "there is no margin of complimenting the United States just because they needed more oil in the market for whatever reason." Moreover, according to the professor, the oil market is already saturated with oil and further extraction may only disrupt the balance. On June 30, officials from OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing countries confirmed their decision taken in May to increase output by 648,000 barrels per day in August.,"I think most of the OPEC+ countries, they've reached almost the maximum output," explained Al Ibrahim, adding that he does not see a way to considerably step up oil extraction in the foreseeable future.,Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) stated on July 16 that the only thing Riyadh can do is boost crude production from 10 million barrels per day to 13 million per day by 2027, adding that there is no additional capacity beyond that. MBS also highlighted that unified efforts are required to keep the global economy afloat, and that unrealistic policies regarding energy sources could instigate further inflation.,Bilateral Ties, Defense & Energy: Key Takeaways From Biden's Saudi Arabia Visit16 July, 14:40 GMT,Middle Eastern Players’ Security Concerns,Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are seeking the US’ concrete commitment to improve mutual ties. During the July 16 Jeddah Summit for Security and Development, which brought together the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) alongside Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, Biden vowed that the US would remain fully engaged in the Middle East. The US president particularly said that the US would not "leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran.","We will have to take from President Biden's word that America is not turning its back on the region, that America will defend its interests in the region," said Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, professor of political science at Emirates University and author of several books, including The Gulf Moment. "However, the future will reveal to what extent that is true.",Riyadh previously voiced concerns over the Biden administration putting US-Saudi arms deals on pause, as well as the White House's talks over the resumption of the Iran nuclear deal. In addition to that, it turned out in June 2021 that the Pentagon had pulled approximately eight Patriot anti-missile batteries from Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system was also withdrawn from Saudi Arabia at that time, according to the Wall Street Journal.,The professor drew attention to the fact that Washington has recently shifted its focus to Europe and to the Indo-Pacific from the Middle East. According to Abdulla, the Biden administration appears to be preoccupied with Ukraine and its rivalry with China, which is currently emerging as an economic superpower. "So whether America will pay attention to the Middle East in light of all of this preoccupation, that is something we will just have to watch for the days and months and years to come," he noted.,Dr. Ahmed Al Ibrahim echoes the Emirati professor's concerns: while the US and especially its military and intelligence community remain an important ally for Saudi Arabia, Riyadh cannot rely on the rapidly changing mood of the Democratic establishment, citing Biden's recent U-turn.,"Now, Biden is saying all that stuff," Al Ibrahim said. "Let's see if this administration will keep their part of the bargain or in three years another president comes and he decides to basically wipe up everything Biden said or actually recognize the region even more. Saudi Arabia is injured by the 18 months that this administration has ruptured the relationship with [Riyadh]. And we need to be shown some real solid commitment from the US in order for Saudi Arabia to recover from the mistrust and misunderstanding by this administration that did to us in the past 18 months.",Given that, neither Saudi Arabia nor Egypt, Israel or Iraq are going "to put all their eggs in one basket," Al Ibrahim pointed out, in an apparent reference to the potential diversification of diplomatic ties.,Earlier this week, Purnima Anand, the president of the BRICS International Forum, told Russian newspaper Izvestia that Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are preparing to formally apply for membership in BRICS, an acronym for five emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.,Global Power Shifting Away From West, While BRICS Expanding & Increasing Legitimacy14 July, 16:45 GMT,Washington's Politicization of Khashoggi Case,It appears that US President Joe Biden could not help but raise the issue of the killing of Jamal Khashoggi once again during his trip, even though the Saudi kingdom conducted an extensive investigation into the crime and prosecuted eight culprits. Khashoggi's son Salah later announced that the Saudi judiciary had been fair to his family and that "justice has been achieved".,According to the Gulf observers, Biden's latest remark that he considers the crown prince responsible for the tragedy was primarily aimed at his electoral base ahead of the November midterm elections.,"President Biden, even when he is here in the region, has his mind in Washington and is speaking to an audience in America," said Abdulla. "And probably he wants to capitalize on his appearance in Washington, in Riyadh and in Jeddah. And he knows it is a large segment in his own party, the ones to the left listen to him very carefully, evaluating him.",The crown prince's answer was not long in coming: MBS told the US president that Saudi Arabia has dealt with the issue and that the country's justices had a final say.,Riyadh is well aware that the Khashoggi issue is highly politicized by Washington and is resolutely withstanding the White House's allegations, noted Al Ibrahim. In response to the Biden administration's accusations MBS cited the Abu Ghraib torture and prisoner abuse committed by the US military and CIA personnel in Iraq in the early 2000s, stressing that rogue incidents took place under the US watch too. Riyadh also drew attention to the fact that in the same year that Khashoggi was murdered, over 248 journalists were killed across the world and nobody is talking about them, Al Ibrahim concluded.,"Did Biden get everything he wanted from this [Jeddah] meeting?" asks Abdulla. "I think if he goes away with the view that he is from now on dealing with a new Gulf that deserves respect and new Gulf leaders who are now not necessarily the same as the old leaders. They have a new agenda. They have a new view. They have their own new vision.",The only question is whether Washington has understood this and will reconcile itself with this new reality, the professor noted.。    每日商报讯 台风过境，本已偃旗息鼓的高温又重振旗鼓，昨天，杭城迎来久违的阳光，主城区跃上35.7℃，高温叠加高湿，有种重回“黄梅天”的错觉。不过，台风残涡并未就此作罢，“尾巴”还将持续洒水。截至昨日19时，杭州市主城区、临平区、临安区等多地发布暴雨黄色预警，余杭区发布暴雨红色预警。为什么明明台风已经停编，却还在大面积“洒水”？市气象台解释，从卫星云图上来看，“白海豚”的残余环流结合了西风槽以及台风的尾流，共同组合成为范围广阔的降水系统。

二 | 而在天气形势图上，这片降水系统的东边和西边都是高压系统，导致降水系统相对较为稳定。

三 | 受其影响，杭州在短期之内多雨的天气格局不会改变。

四 | 值得注意的是，接下来强降雨还可能会杀个“回马枪”。这是因为，“白海豚”的尾流里西南季风和高压底部的东南气流交汇，还将催生出新的低压系统，未来“白海豚”的残余低压缓慢东移，与东边新生低压逐渐靠近，进一步增强杭州上空的辐合上升运动，加上季风源源不断输送水汽，预计今明两天杭州的降雨量将会明显增大，局地可能出现短时强降水、雷雨大风等强对流天气。

五 | 好在，等这波雨水过去，本周日将迎来降雨暂歇，全省以多云到阴为主，部分有阵雨或雷雨，算是难得的“中场休息”。另外，台风还在扎堆生成，今年第17号台风“浪卡”（热带风暴级;英文名称Nangka;名字来源:马来西亚;名称意义:又名菠萝蜜果，黄色椭圆形状，是马来西亚非常流行的一种水果）于昨天上午在西北太平洋洋面上生成，下午5时许位于距离日本东京东南方向约1510公里的海面上，预计将以每小时30—35公里的速度向东北方向移动，未来“浪卡”对我国无影响。可以说，8月以来台风似乎无间断，如此密集生成是不是有点反常？其实，西北太平洋和南海一年四季都可能有台风生成，7月至9月是台风活跃季，8月台风生成的数量与登陆我国的个数均居于全年首位。8月平均有5.63个台风生成，其中2.3个登陆我国。近期台风密集，总体也符合常年规律，历年8月台风生成数最多的是1960年，多达14个。

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